As Mustafa Abdul-Latif Mishatat Al-Ghrebawi, otherwise
known as Mustafa al-Kadhimi, takes charge this month as the new prime minister
of Iraq, he faces quite challenging tasks.
The new premier began by promising to release jailed
protesters and restore the retirement salary payments suspended by the outgoing
prime minister, and implement reforms, among many other promises. The important question is will he be able to reform
the government’s institutions, root out corruption, and resolve many of Iraq’s complex
problems, or at least begin the process of reform.
The primary obstacle to his success is neighboring
Iran, which yields over-whelming influence in Iraq, similar to how the Soviet
Union controlled the Eastern European countries of the now defunct Warsaw Pact.
Iran’s control starts at the top. The various pro-Iranian Shia religious political
parties and coalitions put in power by Bush's invasion in 2003, and backed by armed militias, control the country’s
military, security forces, justice system, executive institutions, and have a
majority in the parliament. These forces and groups in power, guided by Tehran
dictate the policies any prime minister may take.
Originally Iran and its proxy politicians and
militias in Iraq opposed Mustafa as the designate prime minister, accusing him
of being pro-American. In fact one of these militias declared that his candidacy
for prime minister was a “declaration of war” and they threatened to prevent
him from taking office. All of a sudden, these politicians and militia leaders
went silent, and gave approval to his premiership.
Media reports in Iraq spoke of a behind-the-scenes
U.S.-Iran deal to waive Iranian opposition to Mustafa’s new post. Among the
many news items that appeared just before he was sworn in as the new prime
minister, was that the U.S. granted a four-month waiver on sanctions to allow
Iraq to import electricity from Iran, and that Iranian assets valued over a
billion dollars held in Luxemburg because of the sanctions were now approved by
the U.S. to be transferred to Iran.
With cold-hard cash from Iraq for electricity and
unfrozen assets from Luxembourg, it seems that Iran has been bought out, at
least for now. So much for the “principles” Iran and their proxies in Iraq supposedly have
against America. It seems everyone has a price.
Now that Mustafa has been sworn in, can he
actually take measures to decrease Iran’s influence in Iraq and strengthen the
country’s institutions?
For starters, why is Iraq importing electricity
from Iran, since Iraq used to produce its own? The main reason is that pro-Iranian
militias dismantled electric power stations in Iraq, like the huge electric plant
in Beiji, creating a need to import. In addition, rather than repair the dilapidated
electric stations and/or build new ones, these pro-Iranian politicians continue
to neglect and ignore this issue and instead complain of sanctions on Iran.
Even when Saudi Arabia offered to give Iraq electricity for FREE, these pro-Iranian
leaders in Iraq refused and opted to pay cold hard cash to Iran instead. In addition, recent “mysterious attackers”
(because no one claims responsibility and security forces don’t investigate) have
attacked and knocked out various large electric relay stations and towers in various
provinces, to make the need even more acute.
In addition, similar “mysterious attackers” are
going around Iraqi farms and burning wheat and grain fields, at a time when they
are ripe for harvest. Thousands of acres of farmland have been torched. Conspicuously,
Iran is flooding the produce markets in Iraq with cheap farm products to control
the market. They create the need and then mysteriously provide the solution.
It is similar to how Iran flooded the Iraqi markets
with the outdated poor quality “Saeba” cars, subsidized by the Iraqi
government. To register a new imported car in Iraq costs over a $1,000 in fees.
However, if the Iraqi citizen purchases an Iranian car, the Iraqi government
will grant him a coupon and waive the registration fee, in effect making it
free. That is more cold hard cash for
Iran, at Iraq’s expense.
The corruption in Iraq is huge and vast, with “ghost”
employees in the government and members of government-sponsored militias receiving sizable salaries. There are huge salaries paid out to the supposedly former refugees in
the Saudi Rafha camp, all of whom have been granted asylum in the U.S. and
Europe, in the mid-1990s, well before the 2003 invasion. These supposed “victims”
which include people who were never even in Rafha or have never seen Iraq, are
receiving monthly salaries from the Iraqi government. These monthly payments
for the “Rafha” claimants and “ghost” employees amount in the billions of dollars,
draining the Iraqi treasury; funds that could be used to rebuild the infrastructure
and revitalize the economy.
Iran uses their proxy politicians and political
parties in Iraq to make Iran-friendly economic and strategic policies, and
legislate pro-Iran laws, like the law to fund the Popular Mobilization Militia
(Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi) which is a sectarian religious paramilitary entity modeled
after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Iran uses this official militia umbrella group
and other militia groups it controls, as well as former militiamen who have
been merged into the Iraqi Army and Interior Department Security Forces to maintain
its control of the country by force.
Through these various armed groups and
paramilitaries, Iran's proxies have continued the policy of subjugation of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs, which
according to 2003 and prior census figures amount to at least 40% of the population.
Yet the Army, Security Forces, and most government ministries and agencies are
now staffed about 90% Shia.
The large predominantly Sunni provinces, like
Al-Anbar, Nineveh (Mosul), Salahadeen (Tikrit, Beiji, and other cities), Kirkuk,
and Diyala, which were devasted by war and destruction over 3 years ago, are still largely in
disrepair and without basic services. Millions of inhabitants, displaced and
made refugees, have either not been allowed to return to their homes or unable
to return due to the destruction.
Areas where Sunni Arabs have been victims of
sectarian cleansing and forcibly expelled from their homes like Jurf-Sakhr in
Babylon province, and areas of Diyala, are not allowed to return to their neighborhoods.
The areas have been confiscated and are controlled by various militia groups. Tens
of thousands of Sunni Arabs have languished in jails and detention centers for
years without any trial or due process.
In welcoming Mustafa’s new post, U.S. Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo, stated on April 29, 2020, that “Iraqi leaders must put
aside the sectarian quota system and make compromises that lead to government
formation for the good of the Iraqi people…”
Can the new prime minister rectify the
inequities of the discrimination and oppression of one of Iraq’s main communities?
Can he abolish the sectarian quota system and make the institutions fair,
equitable, and representative of the people? Can he release those tens of thousands
of detainees, both the recent October protesters and the Sunni Arabs detained
years ago? Can he rebuild the demolished areas and integrate the disenfranchised
Sunni Arab community into the country’s national institutions?
Secretary Pompeo also said, “The Iraqi people
need and deserve a government that frees the country from external
intimidation, puts the prosperity of the Iraqi people first, and tackles the
major challenges that continue to face Iraq.”
Can the new prime minister take the courageous decisions
that put Iraq’s interests above that of Iran, and put an end to the Iranian
control? Can he end the corruption and fraudulent waste of resources? Time will tell.
Secretary Pompeo's statements can be found here:
https://www.state.gov/secretary-michael-r-pompeo-at-a-press-availability-4/
